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Steel prices may continue to rise due to the storm of production restriction in the Yangtze River Delta
【Time:2019-11-13 14:17】 【Traffic:

 After the rise of steel price last week, the high-level transaction was weak. In the early days of yesterday's week, the steel price in China was adjusted weakly and steadily. However, on this date, whether the rise can be resumed and how about the cost and profit of billet and steel plant? Let the editor analyze the following aspects in detail:

 
 
 
I. macro news
 
 
 
The national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of ecological environment, etc. issued the notice on printing and distributing the action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter 2019-2020 in the Yangtze River Delta. Main objectives: strive for progress while maintaining stability, promote continuous improvement of ambient air quality, fully complete the target of improving ambient air quality in 2019 in the Yangtze River Delta, and coordinate to control greenhouse gas emissions. During autumn and winter, the average concentration of PM2.5 decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the number of days of heavy pollution and above decreased by 2% year-on-year.
 
 
 
At the time of North China's material transportation to the south, the area of changsanjiao in East China is the main inflow area, and strict transportation control is the main reason. At this time, we need to wait for market rationality to interpret.
 
 
 
II. East China market
 
 
 
This morning, the market price was stable. After the opening of the market, the market price rose for a time, driving the spot trading atmosphere. The market price rose for the second time. In Shanghai alone, large factories in East China reported more than 3750-3770 yuan / ton. Small factories reported more than 3730-3750 yuan / ton for anti-seismic resources. The market resources were too much on the way, the market mentality was cautious, and the lack of resources in the hands of merchants was still obvious. The inquirers were more In recent years, there are many construction sites in southern Jiangsu and Shanghai, and the demand is huge. The direct delivery from steel mills has obvious advantages in complete specifications.
 
 
 
III. raw material supply
 
 
 
On December 12, Tangshan Steel Billets increased by 20 yuan to 3340 yuan / ton, and the overall trading performance of steel billets was good. At present, some local and surrounding steel plants in Tangshan reported 3340 yuan / ton of common carbon billets, and Qian'an mainstream steel plant reported 3340 yuan / ton of common carbon billets, all of which were tax inclusive, leaving the factory with a naked price of 3070 yuan for businesses and a small increase in prices in other surrounding areas. This morning, Tangshan mainstream steel plant took the lead in exploring the increase of 10 yuan in billets. After the increase, the trading performance of direct delivery was acceptable. The trading business continued to clear up resources. The storage spot price was 3420 yuan, including taxes. With the increase of the spiral disk, the billet manufacturers once again increased 10 yuan (accumulatively increased 20 yuan), which boosted the confidence of business operation, active market exchange and investment atmosphere, normal resumption of production of local rolling mills, more billets purchased by manufacturers, and short-term steel The price of the blank is stable, and the finishing is relatively strong.
 
In the near future, steel billets and iron ore coke have been reduced a lot, and raw material prices are relatively low, stimulating market activity and steel production.
 
 
 
IV. downstream real estate trends:
 
 
 
In the first three quarters, the total revenue of 142 listed real estate enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets totaled 1505.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.04%, a decrease of 5.02 percentage points compared with the same period in 2018; the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 144.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.52%, a significant decrease of 19.56 percentage points compared with the same period in 2018. Among the leading real estate enterprises, Vanke's revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2019 decreased by 23 percentage points compared with the same period of 2018. Overall, there were 26 real estate enterprises with negative net profit attributable to the parent in the first three quarters of 2019, among which the net profit attributable to the parent of Yunnan urban investment dropped by 56.7% to - 1.063 billion yuan year on year.
 
 
 
At present, the sales revenue data of real estate enterprises is still outstanding, but at present, the sales data of real estate enterprises mainly depends on the income delay under the high turnover in the early stage. Subsequently, with the land acquisition of real estate falling, the downward sales data is also a high probability event. In the case of marginal tightening of financing environment, since the second half of the year, many top real estate enterprises have slowed down their land acquisition, and it is expected that the pressure of real estate cash flow in the later period is still large.
 
 
 
V. prediction of steel market in the near future
 
This period by the snail limited production news impact shock pull up, the final close up 81. By the time of publication, the mainstream billet has increased by 20 yuan, and now it is reported as 3340 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the finished material market, the early quotation period snail is in shock operation, and the spot market is more cautious to wait and see. The intraday period snail trend keeps rising in red, and the superimposed cost end support is firm, and the transaction after rising is fair. Considering that the current market specifications are in different degrees of shortage, supporting the spot market, considering comprehensively, it is expected that the mainstream will be in strong operation in the near future. The main influencing factors are as follows: 1. The billet has been increasing in recent years, and the cost end support is firm; 2. The price of the phase screw plate keeps rising in red, which boosts the spot market; 3. The downstream demand release market transaction is acceptable, and the direct delivery advantage of the steel plant is obvious; 4. The limited production in East China has a great impact, and the macro news is good.
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