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Cold rolling weekly review: the mood is also repeated, and the next week is adjusted by vibration (3.16-3.20)
【Time:2020-03-20 15:46】 【Traffic:

 [summary]

 
 
 
This week's national cold rolling prices rose and fell
 
 
 
The mood is also repeated, and it will fluctuate and adjust next week
 
 
 
1、 Market Review
 
 
 
This week, the cold rolling market was up and down, with a range of 10-100 yuan, of which East China and southwest China were the best performers. Specifically, the current inventory in East China varies, and the total inventory in Shanghai stock market does not change much. The inventory gradually tends to a stable range, but there are more North material resources to be unloaded at the wharf and at sea, which also leads to the sale of some low-cost goods in transit. Under the pressure of sharp decline in the period on Thursday, 4000 yuan of goods are released, while there are more in other Changzhou, Hangzhou and Wuxi regions at present The stock pressure of several traders is too high, some of them are on the edge of stock explosion, and the market demand is not good. Most terminal enterprises mainly consume their own inventory first, which makes the market inventory consumption slow. Most of the cold coils in stock are mainly cold coils of Shangang, Handan steel, WISCO, etc.; the central part of China has made up for the decline. At present, some agents in Wuhan have started to return to Han successively, and a few of them have made official offers to the outside world, with the base price of the coil plate around 4070-4100. However, it is expected to return to work at the end of March and the beginning of April. At present, the warehouse and logistics in the local market have not been restored, and the following specific conditions have been notified by the government. However, Huangshi, Yichang and other places have been gradually restored. Steel mills and traders have begun to return to work flexibly, and a small number of production personnel have implemented closed management, and other personnel are mainly home-based office workers. The recovery of Wuhan market is just around the corner. This week, Wuhan market is cold The overall digestion speed of rolling is slow, the inventory of merchants is relatively large, and the inventory of large households is about 4000-5000 tons. The prices of some merchants in Zhengzhou are slightly up and down. The former market demand is generally warmer than that of last week, and the daily output of some merchants is about 50-200 tons. However, due to the continuous release of overdraft market demand in the first two days, the high price resources transactions on Wednesday and Thursday are slightly under pressure; the southwest region The steel market has returned to normal operation, and 90% of dealers have started work. According to dealers' feedback, the number of customers with telephone inquiries increased compared with last week, and the downstream purchase volume gradually increased. However, the current market inventory is far higher than that of the same period last year. Most dealers said that the focus of their work is still on reducing inventory, shipping and collecting funds, and there is a certain space for negotiation of the transaction price. In terms of inventory, the resources of major steel mills have successively arrived at the warehouse, the delivery rate is equivalent to the arrival rate, and the market inventory is slowly digested; in North China, the front is high and the back is low, and the delivery is better than the upper turnover. There is a low-level situation of taking goods in Tianjin. It is understood that the futures in the first half of the week fluctuated higher, and after the rise of Tianjin and Handan, according to the feedback of some businesses, the transaction is acceptable. But on Thursday, futures fell, and some businesses with poor delivery chose to sell at a lower price, and some businesses had scrap orders. Generally speaking, the external environment has a great impact on the good time and bad time of the transaction. In the near future, the arrival of mainstream steel mills has increased and the mentality is quite different. In South China, the price of billets, hot coils and other raw materials has increased and the cost has increased due to the influence of weekend sentiment. Monday's black macro positive results in this wave of price increase. At present, the cold rolling stock problem has not been slowed down very well The situation of port pressure is still serious, and the downstream construction fails to meet the expectation, so the price cannot be sustained. Since Tuesday, the price has dropped, especially for Liugang resources, which can be adjusted 3-4 times a day, so the mood is easy to be infected.
 
2、 Trend prediction and operation suggestions for next week
 
 
 
At the beginning of the week, in the process of pushing forward the futures, there was also a small commotion in the spot market. Dealers in North, South and southwest China pushed up their prices, and waiting customers also took the initiative to enter the market to place orders. However, the shortage of the United States is that the power of pulling up is not strong and the number of orders is limited. On Wednesday and Thursday, with the "discouragement" of the capital market, the spot market returned to its original state again, and even oversold in some areas. Shanghai Bengang fell to 4000 yuan, Beijing Tianjin Hebei was less than 3950 yuan. In terms of transaction, North China was better than East China, and there was a situation of receiving goods. Downstream demand in Southwest China was rising, and businesses were relatively priced. Overall, the demand is higher than the previous period, while the inventory data is declining, but the external environment fluctuates greatly, and the sentiment is also repeated. Therefore, it is expected that the cold rolling market price will fluctuate and adjust next week
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