"Generally speaking, the short-term supply and demand pressure of the market is not big. At the same time, manufacturers are optimistic. A sample survey of 230 steel mills and traders shows that 54.78% of them are bullish, 28.7% are bullish and 16.52% are bearish Overall, the market is expected to be bullish in September. For the time being, the risk of falling prices is small. But whether the market is sustainable or not needs to pay attention to the performance of Southern demand. In addition, the price of steel strip has reached the high level of last year. Take Ruifeng price as an example, in July 2019, the price of Ruifeng 355 series steel strip reached a high point of 3930 yuan / ton. At present, the price has reached the peak of last year, and the downstream tends to wait and see. It is expected that the factors that will have a greater impact on the market in September are the degree of demand and policy trends related to the supply side.
Steel market "gold nine" can be expected, steel prices continue to rise in peak season. The iron ore market depends on the start-up of downstream steel mills. According to the current Tangshan market production limit and increase, as well as the steel plant production line maintenance increased in September, the ore price should be mainly interval shock, if there is another upward momentum, see whether there is new good news stimulation. However, as the terminal demand is stable and supply is expected to shrink, the finished products will rise again. Both of them last until the middle and late ten days, and then in the market of insufficient demand, the decline of finished products driven by the industrial chain appears, and then the market in September is ended.
Dai Li believes that as the price goes up, traders' wait-and-see sentiment increases, which shows that the market risk increases after the price continuously rises. Steel prices rise too fast, high prices or inhibit part of the demand. In the early stage, the purchasing participants were hesitant, and the purchasing participants could only sigh with disappointment. Although there was no lack of market speculation factors, with the further digestion of the news, the impact of environmental protection in the later stage might be narrowed. From the market volume of these days, low turnover is the mainstream, and businesses are afraid of high-end quotation. The sustained release of market demand is not strong, and the rising price will be restrained.
Generally speaking, it is expected that there is high risk release space in the short term, but the demand for downstream waiting for price correction and replenishment is still in place. Therefore, the emergence of periodic supply-demand contradiction does not have the conditions to continue to intensify. Therefore, it is difficult to say that the range of callback is still large, and the possibility of continued rise in short-term memory.
