"2018 iron and steel enterprises will enter the normal return of production profits." "My Steel Network," an assistant president and senior researcher Ren Zhuqian at the 2018 Commodity Market Summit pointed out that by 2018 China's steel industry will be less adequate supply to the relative prosperity, While demand will shift from growth to flat or down. "The return of steel profits will be reflected in the decline of steel prices."

 

According to Renqian Qian, according to the model of "My Steel Network", the classification of 128 small trades in eight major industries was found. In 2017, the domestic crude steel consumption increased by 1.83% over the same period of last year. The domestic crude steel consumption in 2018 is expected to decrease slightly by 0.06% from the same period of last year.

 

Thus, China's steel market demand in 2018 or steady slightly lower, and stimulated in the high-profit steel production capacity, production is expected to release, that steel supply may be slightly increased next year. "The whole supply and demand will still maintain a relative balance in 2018, and it is not ruled out that there will be shortages in a few regions and individual varieties in a few time periods," said Wang Jianhua, chief analyst of "My Steel Network" steel.

 

In 2017, steel strip policy was upset and steel demand surpassed expectations. As the price of steel went up once, the inventories of the steel market dropped once and the profit of the iron and steel enterprises picked up. According to Wang Jianhua calculations, the gross profit of steel enterprises this year, tons of steel basically maintained at the level of 500 yuan to 1,500 yuan, individual months or even more than in 2008.

 

Data also show that as of the end of November, rebar, hot rolled and other five major steel varieties of social stock was 8.36 million tons, down 840,000 tons or 9.1% over the same period last year.

 

Wang Jianhua said that the current steel market is in the context of supply-side reform emerged, if the supply-side reform in 2018 unshaken policy, the determination of steel enterprises to improve efficiency and efficiency in the inertia of the market, the next steel There is still some room for price increases.

 

In the long run, Renqian Qian believes that China's steel industry has entered a phase of structural adjustment. In the future, the proportion of electric furnaces will rapidly increase in the future. In terms of regional structure, the consumption entities will develop toward the central and western regions. Than will enhance; industry concentration increases, the proportion of the top ten steel output will increase; the industry debt ratio will decline.

 

In fact, regarding the improvement of the concentration of the steel industry, the merger and reorganization among the iron and steel enterprises has started the curtain this year. Related cases include the reorganization of state-owned enterprises by private-owned enterprises, the reorganization of state-owned enterprises by private-owned enterprises, and the consolidation of domestic enterprises in the foreign enterprises , But also foreign companies to participate in mergers and acquisitions of domestic enterprises.

 

Wang Jianhua believes that urbanization and industrialization will bring opportunities to the steel market. Among them, the urbanization rate of China's census population is 41.2%. Generally speaking, when the urbanization rate of a country is between 40% and 60%, the consumption of steel In addition, China's per capita steel consumption and the United States, Japan compared to the peak, there is still a gap, China's industrial demand for steel is still room for development.

 

At the same meeting, Liu Zhenjiang, party secretary and secretary general of China Iron & Steel Association, pointed out that it is strictly forbidden to reinvigorate the newly-added production capacity after major breakthrough and decisive victory in capacity-building in the steel industry; the capital structure of steel enterprises has not yet been optimized and the debt ratio is still still partial High; to ensure the smooth operation of the industry. Data show that the current average rate of large and medium-sized steel enterprises remained at about 70% debt ratio.