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Monetary policy in the fourth quarter is easy to loosen and difficult to tighten, and it is expected to lower the RRR again
【Time:2021-10-11 13:58】 【Traffic:

 Entering the fourth quarter, economic growth is expected to rebound slightly. From July to August, under the dual impact of the epidemic and the flood, the momentum of economic recovery slowed down. Entering the fourth quarter, as the epidemic is basically under effective control, it is expected that the growth rate of manufacturing investment and consumption is expected to rebound, and infrastructure construction will also rebound with the issuance of special bonds.

   "But the problem of uneven economic recovery still exists, which will limit manufacturing investment and consumption recovery." The relevant person further explained that the repeated epidemics, the structural differentiation of residents' income and the higher tendency to save, will limit consumption recovery. Although inflation risks are generally controllable, high prices of industrial products continue to suppress the recovery of downstream manufacturing profits and drag down the pace of recovery of the manufacturing industry.
  Relevant people predict that in the fourth quarter, fiscal policy will be further exerted. As special bonds enter a period of intensive issuance, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to continue to rebound. In the first half of the year, the economic recovery momentum was good, and the progress of fiscal expenditures and the scale of special bond issuance were not as good as in normal years, leaving sufficient space for the second half of the year. In the context of higher-than-expected economic pressures in the third quarter, the State Council executive meeting held on September 1 requested that local government special debts be used to drive the expansion of effective investment. The State Council executive meeting held on September 22 requested that the role of social investment be better used to expand effective investment. Next, as special bonds enter a period of intensive issuance, it is expected that infrastructure investment will continue to rebound, supporting aggregate demand.
"Monetary policy is easy to loosen and difficult to tighten. The central bank may increase open market operations or reduce the reserve ratio to ease the liquidity tension in the market at the appropriate time." According to relevant analysis, the over-reserve rate of financial institutions was 1.2% at the end of the second quarter. The overall situation is at a historically low level. A total of about 3.99 trillion yuan of new government bonds are to be issued from September to December, and there is still 3.05 trillion yuan of MLF due from September to December. A large number of government bond issuances and MLF maturity will affect the banking system. The liquidity has a big disturbance. The central bank may increase open market operations in due course, or reduce the RRR again to stabilize the liquidity environment, and cooperate with the issuance of government bonds.
   In addition, relevant people believe that “as the US fiscal stimulus policy gradually advances, the currency gradually tightens, and the economy recovers steadily, it is expected that U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index will enter a mid-to-long-term upward channel, which will put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.”
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