In March, the iron and steel market was not strong in the peak season. Since April, the supply and demand structure has been improved gradually. Is it open in the spring season?

 

At present, the steel market is interlaced with many factors. In the later stage, it will be difficult to maintain the steel price.

 

Steel price leads the black system to strengthen

 

After more than one month of continuous downlink, the black line has recently regained its strong market. In April 23rd, the black market was strong again in the domestic futures market. As of the end of the afternoon, coke in the main contract rose 3.87%, power coal rose 2.62%, coking coal rose 2.26%, hot rolled coil rose 2.25%, iron ore rose 2.14%, wire rod rose 2%.

 

A share market wind CITIC first tier steel plate early strong led, but gradually weakened in the afternoon, up 0.2% at the end. Among stocks, Chuangxing resources fell 8.47%, and Anyang steel fell 4.96%.

 

"Spot market, the steel spot and futures market continued to rise in recent years, and the increase has been widened, the rally is strong." The analysts of the European metallurgy company said that hot rolling and building materials rose relatively large last week, of which Shanghai hot rolling rose 170 yuan per ton to 4050 yuan per ton last week, up 4.4%. Shanghai thread steel and Shanghai wire rod rose by 120 yuan / ton, 140 yuan / ton to 3850 yuan / ton and 4070 yuan / ton respectively, up 3.2% or 3.6% respectively. As far as the region is concerned, the market in East China is higher than that in Southern China and the northern market. Other steel varieties are high or slightly higher.

 

On the news side, in the winter after limiting production, the recent environmental protection and capacity to wind up again.

 

NDRC spokesman 18 said that from May to June, the iron and steel industry will be organized to resolve excess capacity and prevent the "spot bar" resurgence of the special spot checks. At present, the special inspection work plan has been worked out with relevant departments, and specific plans have been made for related work. Next, we will organize the local and related parties to carry out special spot checks accordingly.

 

In 2018, the Ministry of ecology and environment will carry out the law enforcement inspection of "2+26" urban steel, thermal power, paper making, cement and other 15 industries. We must crack down on a number of illegal enterprises that do not permit sewage disposal, exceed standard emissions, and self monitor data falsification and information disclosure.

 

In the near future, the iron and steel heavy town Tangshan City has also issued corresponding measures to limit production. On the one hand, it remains in the non heating season peak production requirements, and the sintering is limited to 50%. Itself in the non heating season peak production requirements, involving a cycle of 244 days, the main urban area of the normal maintenance base of 15%, non urban 10% of the limited production requirements, no sewage license enterprises have been completely stopped production. The content of the new production limit policy involved seems to be only in the range of sintering, but it will also have a significant impact on the output of the downstream production link under the base condition of the sintering limit.

 

The aftermarket is rising or difficult to continue

 

Is the long dormant iron and steel market expected to officially open the peak season?

 

"Since the end of March, the steel futures market has been showing a rebound trend, but there is still a relapse in the middle, and the rebound is not smooth. The reason is that the initial impact on the Fed's interest rate increase and the Sino US trade war is overdue, and the market needs to be corrected. Steel stocks continued to decline, steel mills environmental protection limited production news one after another, the supply seems to be suppressed. However, the contest between China and the United States is not yet smooth, which has led to an increase in market risk aversion.

 

Zeng Sheng believes that the spot market will not continue to rebound this week, and there will be a slight decline. In the next few months, the steel futures market will show a trend of concussion, and there will not be a noticeable rise or fall. At present, market profits and profits are basically evenly matched, and it is difficult for them to have a directional choice over a period of time.

 

On the one hand, he said, on the one hand, steel stock continued to decline, and the decline was larger, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand to alleviate the contradiction, because Hebei and surrounding areas have not been completely released, other areas will be subject to environmental supervision and local and phased production reduction, the release of steel production capacity will slow down, The increase in steel production is limited. The government's recent tax cuts and reduction measures help boost market confidence and help improve demand and increase liquidity.

 

On the other hand, the U. S. trade action against China will not stop, and China will take it for granted. Its impact on the steel market will be gradually reflected, although the macro data in 1-3 month is not too bad, but because the market is too pessimistic before. From the macro data, whether the objective cause or the government's initiative to slow down the economy, the future demand is weaker.

 

Jin Lian creates analyst Guo Xiangzhi also indicated that although entered the April, along with the downstream construction site resumption, the demand for finished products gradually improved. But it is worth noting that market demand is also increasing while demand is warming up. At this stage, the market to stock pressure is still very large. In the case of limited supply and demand of steel, the steel price is not strong enough.