In the second half of this year, the possibility of marginal improvement in iron ore supply and demand is unlikely. On the microcosmic point of view, the impact of environmental protection measures was expanded from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to the whole country. The intensity of iron ore daily consumption continued to be limited, and the heating season in the four quarter was limited or the daily consumption was lower than the same period of the same period last year. In addition, the reduction of internal ore supply is inevitable, but the shipments of Brazil coal mine are expected to be improved, and the total amount supply is expected to be flat in the whole year. However, the optimization of Rio PB powder and the reduction of low products in Brazil show that the increase of high quality resources in the future will be the trend.

 

On the macro level, from the point of view of steel demand, real estate regulation continues to strengthen, and the pressure of the house enterprise fund continues to increase, the construction period of the project has gradually lengthened, the steel demand in the unit time will be gradually reduced, the steel profit will be narrowed, and the iron ore demand will be reduced.

 

In 2018, the intensity of environmental protection supervision was strengthened, leading to the fact that domestic mineral resources had not been released. At the same time, after years of mining, combined with environmental impact, most mines have been transferred to the underground, and the cost has been greatly increased while the price has fallen sharply, so some mines have ceased to produce. For the second half of the year, the price downturn makes domestic ore supply still difficult to recover. According to the data, the output of domestic concentrate will be reduced from 5 million tons to 2.28 billion tons in 2018, so as to alleviate the pressure of iron ore supply.

 

Data show that in 2018 1-5 months, the total import volume of iron ore declaration increased by 0.6%. According to the shipping data, the actual shipping volume has dropped, and the domestic mineral output has dropped obviously, which has also become an important reason for the tight supply of Brazil mine. In the second half of the year, the mainstream mine will still bring a part of the increment, and the grade will be improved correspondingly. While the volume of small and medium-sized mine ships, including the India mine, is not expected to improve. At the same time, the domestic mineral quantity is restricted to the limited space of environmental protection and production cost release, so the rising trend of the supply end is not constant, but the marginal pressure will be reduced. Small.