[Market forecast for next week]

 

This week, the price of building materials has both risen and fallen steadily, but because the downstream has not been restored and the market hype is strong, spot quotations in some areas are still strong, the overall increase is between 20-130 yuan/ton and the decline is between 20-50 yuan/ton. Steel prices gradually weakened after the "red opening" of the surge at the beginning of the week, which is slightly different from the low level of the two high schools we expected before the festival, mainly due to the surge in inventories and weak demand. After the surge in prices, the overvaluation led to a surge in market sentiment. For the next week's market, considering various factors, we expect that steel prices will remain stable in general and will rebound slightly in the short run. The reasons are as follows: (1) From the perspective of multi-factors, the price of raw material iron ore is still strong, the production cost of steel mills will be raised, and the guiding price of mainstream steel mills will not fall much; 2) trillion local bonds will be issued more quickly. And promote, infrastructure underpinning policy to further boost the demand for infrastructure in spring, so the spring market is still expected; 3. With the gradual recovery of downstream construction after Lantern Festival, the toughness of demand for real estate steel in the first quarter will also show a lot of advantages; 4. The current steel price lags behind and releases risks, and the price is close to the previous winter storage price range again, and there will be strong market support in the cost area; (2) After the Lantern Festival, the demand for real estate steel will be more resilient. (3) Sino-US trade negotiations are under way, and there are still uncertainties in the negotiation process. There are still potential threats to the steel industry. 4. Continuous large-scale adjustments of snails and relatively strong spot market can not exclude the possibility of further panic and aggravated dumping due to trade negotiations. In summary, in the context of short-term overshoot and tapping prices of mainstream steel mills, we expect steel prices to gradually stabilize and rebound in stages next week, with a rebound range of 20-60 yuan/ton, or a slightly lower trend.