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Current Steel Situation Analysis and Market Anticipation in 2016
【Time:2016-01-21 10:31】 【Traffic:
As downstream processing of steel products, coating and plating technic in 2015 is still alive, and the beginning of 2016 to a big reversal, market ushered in a sustained and substantial price increases, price momentum will last? Now store goods is not a wise move? When the mill shut down a large area who meet year-end settlement will prevail? The following small series will be analyzed one by one.
November 2015 apparent domestic consumption of 3,825,400 tons, 1.78% MoM increase. Before we look at the analysis of the apparent consumption of a formula: apparent consumption = production + imports - exports. Apparent consumption to some extent reflects the overall stock market conditions, and in November apparent consumption rose last month said that the stock rose. Since the beginning of December and since Shanghai galvanized rose about 420 yuan / ton, up 230 yuan in Tianjin galvanized / ton, Guangzhou galvanized rose 150 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan Boxing galvanized / ton, the overall market price rose significantly. In the market as a whole off-season demand coupled with rising inventories, the market price movements deviate why stocks?
Resulting in market prices is the root cause of a large area of ​​the northern city of fog and haze, the environmental protection department of the steel pressure, many mills have shut down, causing the market to reduce shipments. Steel trading business face down for almost a year Tudu market gained momentum obviously hate up mentality, the market prices rise speculation. In the local market price significantly pull up the state, the overall market activity is high, even a difficult state to find the goods, but the overall market turnover often seen among traders in the market as a whole fry up darker atmosphere of state Under traders scrambled to get the price up and then sell the goods, really flows into the downstream end less, resulting in a rise in market volume illusion. In this illusion How can lasting coating market prices?
China's steel production capacity over 1.1 billion tons, but only 2015 data to show that domestic steel demand of 668 million tons, the export volume of 110 million tons, more than 300 million tons of excess capacity. Before the end of 2015 concluded Central Economic Work Conference that the 2016 economic and social development, especially the arduous task of structural reform, we should adhere to the strategy of maintaining stability, a good grasp of rhythm and intensity, tactics to seize the key points, the main the capacity to do a good job, go inventory, deleveraging, lower costs, make short board five tasks. To production capacity is an important task in 2016, after the rally, although gratifying, but in the years after large-scale steel mills resume production, marketing resources will be fast, a lot of supplements, market prices will quickly fall. Fully visible cargo storage would be unwise.
On the whole, 2016 with respect to the pre-painted galvanized business enterprises will face more difficulties, especially in the current automotive steel and steel appliances currently not spread to SMEs, while the high-end printing plate, composite panels the material is still in the promotion. As galvanized and pre-painted business if blindly join the price war, when the home appliance industry will repeat the mistakes. After all, the export pie will be more similar to the impact of anti-dumping. Especially in the current market price record low, if not more from the mills themselves to find a cause, control costs, potential customers, upgrade the new product, then sooner or later will be unable to extricate themselves in the quagmire of vicious competition. Frequent fluctuations in market prices, the downstream end more cautious, plus most of the construction and other engineering industries leave early break, small series encounter mills shut down the year-end settlement, plus itself is now in demand off-season, post-market overall price The decline, the magnitude of 20-50 yuan / ton
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