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Iron Steel Analysis In April
【Time:2016-04-28 11:23】 【Traffic:
Mill operating rates increase steadily
 
Until April 22, steel capacity utilization rate is 78.5%, compared with 86% over the same period last year, there is still a wide gap. With steel prices increasing and steel profits being rich, the current iron and steel enterprises adopt all means to raise productivity, capacity utilization is the high probability event. In addition, with the market warming and capital inflows, some of the cut-off of small power increase steel production complex, the overall yield is expected to maintain a growth trend. Data show that, under the impact of rising steel prices, steel production in March increased significantly. Pig iron, crude steel production was 60.2 million tons, 70.65 million tons, an increase of 2.2%, respectively, 2.9%; the national average daily crude steel production was 2.279 million tons, compared with January-February average daily production increased 261,200 tons, an increase of 12.9%. With the iron and steel enterprises to resume production, the expansion, the late steel production will continue to maintain a high level.
 
Efforts to improve demand was limited
 
Needs improvement is an important factor in the strong rise in steel prices of this round. The second quarter is often the demand chain improvement season, especially in March and April in particular significantly higher than the improvement in the ring. As of April 22, wire rod and rebar weekly purchases in Shanghai reached 290 million tons, to reach a high level in recent years. Meanwhile, steady growth policy of stimulating downstream demand. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March, the national fixed asset investment grew 10.7%, the growth rate of 1 - 0.5 percentage point in February; national real estate development investment grew 6.2%, of 1 - accelerating 3.2 percentage points in February ; major steel industry and automotive equipment manufacturing and other industries are showing positive growth in industrial added value. Visible, Recently improved demand on the one hand it is normal just to be released, on the other hand is a terminal replenishment starts. However, the current seasonal factors supporting the role of steel gradually weakened, and with the sharp rise in steel prices, high psychological fear lead terminal enterprises purchase more cautious, the latter demand side room for improvement probably will be limited.
 
Low stock pattern is expected to an end
 
Until April 22, rebar social inventory is 448 million tons, 2 million tons from the previous month's high of decline, year on year decline of 34%. Steel stocks, as of early April, the end of the key steel enterprises steel stocks 12.91 million tons, although compared with the previous year-end increased 850,000 tons, an increase of 7%, but is still low in the past two years earlier. From the point of view in previous years, with the end of the spring peak demand, steel inventories fell at a slower pace. This year, as steel prices improved profitability, social capital began to flow into the steel prices, steel prices led to resume production in late May or mid-June, stocks may start to rise, when the low inventories of steel supporting role will be significantly weakened. Overall, with a substantial profit improvement in steel prices gradually resume production will increase future supply pressures. In the case of the release of the limited demand and low inventory efforts or change the pattern of steel prices rebound space probably will be limited. Proposes a focus on steel capacity utilization schedule, investors may consider high empty single layout.
 
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