Industry information
Weekly review of building materials: demand recovery is not as weak as expected market volatility (3.25-3.29)
【Time:2019-04-01 10:40】 【Traffic:

 [Market Prediction]: This week, most of the national building materials prices fell, falling between 10-120 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of first shock rebound and then decline, basically in line with our expectations last week. The weak performance of steel prices this week also confirms our expectations and worries about the reversal of the supply-demand relationship in the previous two weeks. For next week's market, we expect to rebound first and then fall more likely, for the following reasons: (1) from the perspective of multi-factors: 1) from the current demand for infrastructure and real estate construction, still reflects a certain degree of resilience; 2) raw iron ore is strongly affected by the Brazilian Valley supply gap, and has a strong supporting effect on steel prices; 3) some owners; The willingness to bid is still strong; (2) Looking from the negative factors: 1. The profit of ton steel further enlarges to stimulate the production of blast furnace plant, and the start-up rate of steel plant keeps rising; 2. The productivity utilization rate of electric furnace steel plant is also in the high stage of recovery in the near future, and the supply has increased; 3. The demand peak has basically appeared in spring, and the focus of the recent national turnover has begun to decline, and the demand is ahead of schedule. Release more, the probability of gradual contraction of demand is on the high side; 4. This week's inventory decline is narrower than expected, and the slow digestion of demand and the increase of superimposed supply pressure steel prices. In summary, we expect steel prices to rebound before falling next week, falling by 30-60 yuan per ton.

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